Everyone is trying to figure out the next move.
You can’t blame them. There’s a lot at stake.
The equity markets have been seesawing in a range. As of today, we’re effectively unchanged in the S&P 500 for the past month.
Real estate investors, agents, and contractors are trying to figure out what’s going to happen with the RE markets next. Anecdotally, I’ve been hearing that things are busier than ever. It was a bit hard to believe, because I’m not in the day-to-day of selling homes. Kaitlin and I have rethought some things, but ultimately we’re proceeding with our plans. That said, we’re not representative of the “average” American.
Then, yesterday, I read this piece from Redfin. The short of it is that demand has now surpassed pre-COVID levels. Here’s the chart porn they include:
Demand is back, but inventory isn’t. The article cites it being down 24% year-over-year. Obviously, this puts upward pressure on price.
It’s too early to say whether this is temporary, pent-up demand, or if it’s sustainable. I have a hard time believing it’s the latter given our country’s failing attempt at properly dealing with COVID. South Korea is making the US look like a third-world country with the way they’re testing, tracing, and handling the virus. Check out this awesome Twitter thread from a journalist visiting the country recently.
Not only are they thoroughly screening travelers, but they’re able to quickly respond/mitigate new outbreaks like the nightclub incident recently experienced.
KCDC Seoul nightclub outbreak update:
— Laura Bicker (@BBCLBicker) May 15, 2020
153 people in total so far infected. 90 club goers infected. 63 friends , family and colleagues caught COVID19 from them.
More than 46,000 people have been tested for covid19 in connection with these cases.
Meanwhile, the US is attempting to “reopen” without any real measures in place. People are literally out of their minds. Check out this clip from a reporter today:
I’ll probably never forget what happened today.
— Kevin Vesey (@KevinVesey) May 14, 2020
I was insulted. I was berated. I was practically chased by people who refused to wear masks in the middle of a pandemic.
All the while, I was there to tell THEIR story. Here’s the finished product. pic.twitter.com/HV2Hrcs7gi
The thing is… I get it. They should be mad. They should be pissed off. But it SHOULD be directed at Trump and the current administration, because it is THEIR job to be fixing this and they have grossly dropped the ball. Now, local governments are abandoned and left to pick up the slack. It’s disgusting.
I wish I could have each of these people read this thread:
Alright. There is a LOT of chatter on this website bashing those who are saying most of the country still isn’t ready for a safe reopening.
— Jeremy TEST/TRACE/ISOLATE Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk) May 15, 2020
So, as we approach what would normally be summer pool season, here’s a short analogy about pooping and accountability.
Click through for the full thing. It’s well worth it.
With the way this is all unfolding, I can’t imagine we recover quickly. We could be trapped in this cycle of “reopening”, locking down, “reopening”, locking down for a year or more.
That won’t be good for anyone. It will leave a trail of devastation that will take years to recover from, if ever.