The last couple years have popularized financial speculation as entertainment for many people, largely, in my opinion, to being trapped at home due to COVID. And while that hasn’t been true for the last twelve months or so (being trapped at home), it seems we’re still weening ourselves off the speculative rush.
Along with speculation as a hobby came the culture of “apeing in” which is simply jumping into a position or bet with a large amount of money, usually more than is prudent. It reminds me a lot of the guy that sits down at the poker table and plays uber aggressively, bullying the table with a high frequency of all-in bets.
It works every time until the last time.
A lot of people are experiencing that last time right now as sentiment continues to unwind.
I have a friend that’s both kicking his smoking habit while simultaneously dieting to lose weight. If that wasn’t enough he’s going cold turkey on the smoking and eating largely salads and chicken for the majority of his meals.
He’s apeing in on improving his health, and while that is a commendable undertaking, I’m constantly nagging him to dial it back. The problem is apeing in isn’t sustainable. It works in the short term but it will always catch up to us. There’s a reason the plethora of nicotine weening products exist. There’s a reason there are thousands of diet programs.
Apeing in also has long-term effects. Once it catches up to us we’re often taken out of the game either literally, financially, or mentally.
In poker this is leaving yourself without a “chip and a chair”. You’re out of the game.
With investing, it’s leaving yourself stuck in a position that continues to bleed lower and no other funds to continue to invest during the bear markets, the optimal time to build positions (this is basically the same as the poker analogy above).
In life, failing to accomplish a goal can be detrimental to your mental health. You may feel too deterred to try again, leaving yourself a smoker, overweight, etc. for the rest of your life.
The key here, obviously, is to not go all in. Take it slow. What that looks like depends on what you’re trying to accomplish. For my friend, I tell him to write down the foods he eats and identify the “worst offenders” and work to eliminate just one of those at a time.
Generally, it boils down to creating a system that forces you to be accountable. It’s work, and it’s why most people don’t do it. They’d rather say they gave it their all and failed… maybe next year they try again without evaluating where they went wrong.
I’m not immune to apeing in myself. Fear of missing out (FOMO) is a fickle mistress. But I’ve been working these last couple months on a system that keeps me accountable for one of my biggest goals in the coming eighteen months.